Tuesday, July 03, 2007

Eight Percent

If you approximate the odds of winning "something" on the regular lottery to 1 in 50 then I am Mister 8%!
Why? I have played the same numbers every Saturday for the last two and a half years and have won nothing! That has an 8% probability of occurring.
If I don't win anything by the end of the year the odds will have dropped to 4.3% cumulative, although the true odds of that happening are actually about 60%!

Oh - I started watching Deal or No Deal again recently, in the run up to their 500th programme. The 500th programme was a let down as the Lady on it was the unluckiest person alive!
Last night the Guy dealt at £20,000 and ended up having the £250k in his box. Serena would have dealt at £75k and I reckoned that if I had the progression of boxes he had had, then I would have gone "F#ck it!" and actually won the £250k. I really need to get on that programme!


GF said...

When it first came on TV I really liked the show, but lets face it there is no skill, no system, just probability.

I think if I was on it, I'd go left to right in order....

On the stats front though, can I send you my concert stats and you can work out the trend, probability for me as without SAS I'm struggling :)

James said...

Gareth's right. No skill at all, but it does make for good TV. It's a cleaver idea. Left to right seems just as good as any other system!

I work with stats constantly. Here's the latest from me.

[F(1,114) = 1.403; p = 0.246ns.]

Total drivel. ;-)

Jase said...

Keep box 11... (Trust me!) :P

Jase said...

Sure there is no skill as it is all down to the luck of the draw, but I like the psychological aspect of the game - it appeals!
When you compare to say WWTBA Millionaire I think the drama is compelling! I would dread being on Millionaire (despite leaving NAG as the reigning champion) as I just know that I would crash out at about £4k on a stupid history question (having used my Ask the Audience on the £250 Coronation St question)!
I know I have a pretty good bredth of general knowledge, but I not old enough for Mastermind.
The only other quiz that I really enjoy is Eggheads on BBC2 - mainly as I like to think that I could give some of them a run for their money!

GF said...

With a team quiz show you'd like to be on, I'm sure there are enough of us with 'specialist' subjects that we could make a formidable team...

Jase said...

Show of hands please?
I reckon we need 6 to cover off filming schedules.
If there really are people interested in something like this I'll research the options more thoroughly.

DoND is too time consuming. They film in Bristol, 3 Episodes a day, 2 Days a week. You need to commit to 4 consecutive weeks of filming.

GF said...

If it was a genuine quiz thing then, yes I would be interested as part of a team.

Jase said...

Apart from Eggheads, what other quizs appeal?
I'll investigate.